Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Philip Morris Vs. Other Tobacco Companies

American Tobacco

Since my first article "Southern Copper vs. Freeport-McMoRan: Higher Yield Tips The Scales" was well received by a lot of people for its short and precise format, I would like to proceed with these "Stock A vs. Stock B" articles as a series, if I continue to receive good feedback about the format and the series in general. For those of you who did not read the first article of this series, I do not intend to slam any stock. I just present my analysis and would appreciate any constructive feedback and discussion in the comments section.

Part 2 of this series involves Philip Morris International (PM) vs. Altria (MO) vs. Lorillard (LO) vs. British American Tobacco (BTI). I've purposefully left out Reynolds American (RAI) from the article to keep the balance: two US only companies (MO and LO) and two International companies (PM and BTI). Also, I've ignored small(er) cap companies like Vector Group (VGR) and Universal Corporation (UVV). I mentioned in my first article that I would not cover the same points in the pros and cons of the companies I am dealing with, but its particularly difficult in this case as it involves 4 stocks. So, one or two points might get repeated but I believe those are really needed to drive the point home. So here we go.

Pros of PM:

High Growth Potential: Operating in more than 150 countries throughout the world, PM has fantastic growth potential. Currently, PM has the largest global market share at about 15%. For investors with patience, I see this stock being the "Altria of the next 25 years" - that is, the best performing stock
Decent dividend yield and growth: At the current price, PM yields about 4%, and I expect a dividend increase (say to 85 cents per quarter) in September 2012 based on its dividend increase history
Cons of PM:

Most Volatile: This stock is the most volatile with a Beta of 0.93. For those of you not familiar with the term "Beta", it indicates the volatility of the stock. Example: If the market moves up by 10%, a stock with a Beta of 1 moves up by 10% as well. If the market goes down 10%, a stock with Beta 2 goes down 20%. With its exposure to Europe and the ongoing Europe mess, PM might be considered more risky than usual at the moment
Competition: While the highly regulated US market impedes new companies, Philip Morris has to face tough competition in the international markets from companies like British American Tobacco, Imperial Tobacco Group (ITYBY.PK), and Japan Tobacco
Pros of MO:

Reliable Dividend: Highest current yield of the companies in question at 5.7%, with continuous dividend payments from the year 1970
Lesser Competition: High regulations, ban on public smoking, and tons of lawsuits make sure the barriers to entry are quite high. Peter Lynch, the legendary investor of 1970s and 1980s, favors companies with niches and less competition (and his book "One up on Wall Street" was the first investment book I read/heard and is one of my favorites)
Pricing Power: Talk with a regular smoker and you will know they will not hesitate a few pennies more for "their Marlboro cigarettes". I would like to add Charlie Munger's (Warren Buffet's investing partner) famous quote on pricing power "If you know you like Wrigley's Gum and you see it there for two bits, are you really going to reach for Glotz's Gum because it's 20 cents and put something you don't know in your mouth? It's not worth it for you to think about buying an alternative gum. So it's easy to understand why Wrigley's Gum has such a huge advantage."

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